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Trump’s approval rating with African-Americans hits record high

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President Trump’s approval rating with African-Americans now stands at 21% but to read the latest polling results released by the NAACP, you’d think Trump was the most racist human being to walk the face of the earth. It’s their narrative and they are sticking to it, even if it means twisting poll results to do it.

The poll results were released Tuesday and it appears to be a vehicle to justify NAACP’s talking points. It is a never-ending charge from the left that President Trump is racist and the poll appears to be intended as a get-out-the-vote effort. The goal is to fire up minority voters and encourage them to disrupt politics as usual on a nationwide level. It’s all about flipping control of the House back to Democrats.

Today, the NAACP released results from a new poll, conducted for the NAACP by the African American Research Collaborative and Latino Decisions, pulling data from voters in 61 of the nation’s most competitive midterm races. The poll analyzed views of African American, White, Latino, Asian American, and Native American voters in these districts, which will ultimately decide which party controls the House.

There is no question that this is a left-leaning polling effort. Lot of people, myself included, no longer hold a very high opinion of polls after the really wrong data produced in the 2016 election. This poll should be taken with a grain of salt, too. Also, I’ll point out that polls are more accurate if likely voters are polled, not registered voters.

2,045 registered voters were interviewed in the 61 congressional districts deemed most competitive by Cook, CNN and Crystal Ball, and the overall poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.1%

Interestingly enough the poll unintentionally verifies the fact that President Trump’s favorability with black voters has risen to a record high, even with the constant drumbeat of claims that the president is the poster boy for racism in America.

In the NAACP poll, 21 percent of blacks approve of the president, up 3.5 percent over the Reuters poll, and his disapproval is 79 percent.

That is higher than the 14 percent approval among blacks that the latest Pew Research Center poll found.

And that 21 percent is far higher than the 8 percent of the vote Trump received in 2016, or the 6 percent Republican Mitt Romney received in 2012.

Still, Derrick Johnson, NAACP president and CEO, said, “Our analysis shows President Trump’s racism is a major factor in both why and how people will vote in the midterm elections. The poll confirms how Trump’s racism has not only divided the nation and polluted policy, but also serves as a key factor in motivating voters of color to disrupt politics as usual on a national scale.”

While the NAACP poll results report claims that African-American celebrity support plays no part in Trump’s rising approval rate, and in fact lowers his approval, was fact-checked to be a false claim. It simply defies reason that Kenye West’s support of Trump or even Dennis Rodman’s support plays no part in a bump in polling for the president. While most black voters may not pay much attention to it, certainly it helps with black men.

A fact check done by USA Today in May when Trump heralded their support said that the positive comments by West and Rodman did help Trump, at least among black men.

USA Today said:

Turns out, he was right, at least in part, according to a Reuters poll. The numbers were correct when examining black men, not the entire black community. Trump’s approval rating among black men increased in the week between April 22 and April 29, according to a Reuters poll. West made posted his series of tweet voicing support for Trump on April 25. It jumped from an 11 percent approval on April 22 to 22 percent on April 29. Among the total black community, it also nearly doubled, but the numbers were lower. His approval among all blacks increased from 8.9 percent to 16.5 percent.

In contrast, the NAACP poll results report said the following:

Trump’s strategy of trotting out black people to support him is not working, if it is intended to inspire African American support for him or his policies. Black celebrities like Kanye West or Dennis Rodman who support Trump do not help Trump’s support among African American voters. To the contrary, more than three times as many black voters say that black celebrities speaking on Trump’s behalf makes them less interested in listening to or supporting Trump’s ideas than black voters who say it would make them more open to listening to or supporting Trump’s ideas. A majority of black voters say these celebrities have no impact.

You can decide for yourself. Obviously, the NAACP is targeting districts that Democrats hope to flip in November. Normally, mid-term elections are not able to produce high voter turn-out numbers. This year will be different due to a hyper-energized Democrat base. I think turn-out will likely be more comparable to 2010 when the Tea Party energized dissatisfied Republican and conservative voters against President Obama and especially Obamacare.

The final takeaway is this: 21% is a good number for President Trump at this point in his first term, especially given the constant dragging he receives from the #Resist crowd. Racism is a charge that usually follows all Republican presidents and Trump is no different. Black voters notoriously vote in a block and I’ll take 21% approval any day.

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Forecast: GOP now more likely to have *at least* 54 Senate seats next year than to lose its majority

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A nifty catch by Philip Klein, eyeballing the latest data from Nate Silver’s model (as of 5:15 p.m. ET). Check it yourself. Democrats momentarily have an 18.4 percent chance of gaining two seats and winning a majority next month. Whereas Republicans have a 9.1 percent chance of gaining three, a 5.5 percent chance of gaining four, a 3.2 percent chance of gaining five, a 1.4 percent of gaining six, a 0.7 percent chance of gaining seven, and a 0.3 percent chance of shooting the lights out and gaining eight (which would leave them one seat shy of a filibuster-proof majority, for what it’s worth). Add those up and you get a 20.2 percent chance of 54 or better.

Which can be summed up in four words: Justice Amy Coney Barrett.

Klein on the path to 54:

Though Republicans were always favorites to keep the Senate, their odds have improved in recent weeks, with three states in particular giving them a boost. Republicans are now considered “likely” to keep their seats in Texas and Tennessee and North Dakota seems ready to flip into the Republican column. Barring any other major upsets, victories in those three races would be enough for Republicans to keep the Senate — hence their 81.6 percent chances overall.

To get to 54, the most likely scenario would be that Republicans win the tossup states of Nevada and Missouri, and then surge to victory in Arizona and Florida (two races that are currently tilting Democrat, but well within range of Republican victory). Beyond that, they’d have to start flipping some seats that are currently considered “likely” to remain Democrat, such as Montana and West Virginia.

Eh, I don’t know if Montana and Indiana, the latter of which he neglected to mention, are all that “likely” to remain Democratic. They’re leaning that way, with both Jon Tester and Joe Donnelly clinging to three-point leads. But Montana hasn’t been polled in three weeks and the latest from Indiana has Donnelly up four but with just 44 percent of the vote. In fact, in none of the four polls dating back to August has Donnelly topped 44, suggesting that a lot of Hoosiers are thinking hard about whether to stick with the incumbent. It’s likely that the GOP will be disappointed somewhere on Election Night — Missouri, Nevada, and Arizona are all leading candidates — but going for one for two on Montana and Indiana seems doable.

Whichever way they do it, if they can get to 54 then Collins and Murkowski might well be nonfactors during the next SCOTUS battle. Flake won’t be in the Senate at all, of course. Trump really might have the arsenal he needs to fill a Ginsburg or Breyer vacancy with a conservative.

That’s the good news. The not-so-good news, also from Silver’s model:

Click the link and add up the different probable outcomes and you’ll see that the GOP has about the same odds of holding the House as Democrats do of winning … at least 54 seats. They’ve got a 10 percent chance of winning at least 60. Gonna be a lot of subpoenas for Pat Cipollone to cope with next year.

There are no new swing-state polls as I write this but keep an eye on the one of Arizona that’s currently in progress (yes, in progress) at the NYT’s site, the Upshot. As I write this at a little after 5 p.m. on the east coast, they’ve compiled a sample of 299 people — not large enough yet to give us confidence in the topline numbers but large enough to make it worth paying attention to. Currently Martha McSally leads Kyrsten Sinema by four points, 49/45. If that holds through the end of the poll, it would be the second straight survey showing McSally ahead after trailing for most of the race. (The previous poll had her up six.) Stay tuned.

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Midterm 2018 TEXAS: Robert (Beto) O’Rourke vs. Ted Cruz

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Texas is Texas.

You don’t mess with Texas!

Texans don’t want a far left US Senator who lies about his background and police records, DUI included, and abuses everything the Lone Star State stands for.

Senator Ted Cruz is up by at least 5 points — but that is not enough.

Cruz is a real conservative and an intellectual giant. He has the highest possible ratings from conservative groups as a sitting US Senator.


We can’t let him down.

His opponent Beto (really Robert) O’Rourke isn’t Hispanic but he is loudly PROGRESSIVE.

He is a phony.

He is a Democratic Socialist and would spell doom for our Republic.

He wants open borders, more rights for criminals, and an end to the petroleum economy.

In Texas?

Trump won Texas by 9 points.

Cruz should win reelection by at least that amount.

Recall Cruz not only voted for Judge Kavanaugh but he articulately defended due process and innocent until proven guilty – the very hallmark of western jurisprudence.

We need him; America needs his voice in the Senate.

There has not been a Democrat to hold statewide office in Texas since 1994!

Keep it that way.

Cruz is a star in national politics and a firm vote for our side. He makes America first! And he is the best advocate for Texas bare none.

Turnout is critical.

Cruz MUST win.

Make this viral in every corner of Texas.

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Pat Robertson: C’mon, we’re not going to blow up a key Middle East alliance over one little murder

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Lefties are marveling that a brand-name Christian conservative would be encouraging followers to look the other way at an assassination, but they’re forgetting Jesus’s parting words at the end of the Sermon on the Mount: “If you want to make an omelette, you’ve got to break a few eggs.”

Wait, am I misremembering? My youthful memories of the gospels are not the best. I think perhaps the savior’s actual parting words were “Velvet glove, iron fist.”

I mean, that at least sounds like Jesus.

Lotta mixed feelings about the evangelical turn towards hard-nosed realpolitik under Trump. On the one hand, the gripe about Christian conservatives used to be that they were forever trying to inject morals into the messy business of politics, made more uncomfortable by the fact that many millions of people disagree with some of their stances on sexual morality and resent their attempts to convert them into policy. Well, good news: Between Robertson’s take on the Khashoggi affair and the complete pass given to Trump on matters like Stormygate, there’s less moralizing than ever.

The bad news? I’m unclear from the clip below on how many murders Pastor Robertson would be willing to tolerate in the name of preserving the alliance and “$100 billion worth of arms sales,” as he notes in passing. Presumably his interest in the latter answers my question: Some of those weapons will be used to continue killing civilians in neighboring Yemen, as he doubtless knows. If Robertson’s willing to condone that in the name of checking Iran, naturally he would condone looking the other way at a lot of things, Khashoggi’s murder just one among them. Christianity’s nice and all but we’ve gotta live in the real world.

I honestly don’t know whether to call him a fraud or to salute him for taking a cold but sober view of the international chessboard.

There may be another reason why he and POTUS’s friends at CBN are rushing to provide cover here, though:

To some extent the Saudis’ problem is Trump’s problem. Right now Trump can afford to ignore the Democrats’ interest in finding out how much his and the Kingdom’s interests overlap. In three months, with the House likely in Democratic hands, it’ll be harder.

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