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Hmmm: Support for Kavanaugh down from last year’s levels of support for Gorsuch in new polls

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“Who cares how a Supreme Court nominee is polling? They’re not running for an office!” you say. Right, but Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul and a bunch of red-state Democrats are. If Kavanaugh’s support is tepid to start with, it means any dirt that comes out during the confirmation process might sour their voters on him. And with confirmation hanging by a thread via a 50/49 party-line vote, even a small shift in public opinion against the nominee might be enough to scare the Senate into borking him.

That comes courtesy of YouGov and HuffPost. The partisan numbers on confirmation are predictable, 6/60 among Democrats versus 85/2 among Republicans, but note how evenly split independents are. Overall, the public narrowly favors confirmation at 33/31 — a statistical jump ball — whereas a year ago the public split 43/28 on Gorsuch’s confirmation. And while the public was reasonably solid in viewing Gorsuch’s nomination favorably (40/28), they’re more evenly split on Kavanaugh’s (34/32).

Fox News also polled on Kavanaugh this week and their numbers weren’t much better:

Last year Gorsuch drew a 49/37 split on the same question. And so we come to the inescapable conclusion: There’s something about Kavanaugh that the public doesn’t like. Right? He’s a hardcore Nats fan. Of course everyone looks at him skeptically!

But is that really what’s happening here — the public just doesn’t like Kavanaugh? Most Americans know nothing about him, only what they saw at the White House announcement and the bits and pieces of jurisprudential esoterica that they’re picking up in scattered news reports. How many Americans could pick him out of police line-up even after Monday’s ceremony? Thirty percent, maybe? Let me suggest that the reason Kavanaugh’s polling worse than Gorsuch has less to do with him and more to do with whom he’s replacing. Swapping out Scalia for Gorsuch was no big deal philosophically since they were each about as conservative as the other; swapping out Kennedy, the famous centrist, for a more dogmatic conservative like Kavanaugh is a big deal. Gorsuch didn’t change the balance of power on Roe or gay rights. Kavanaugh potentially will. Some Americans who’d prefer a more centrist or even left-wing may be reacting accordingly.

Interestingly, both the YouGov and Fox polls show a notable gender gap. Men favor confirming Kavanaugh 40/33 and 47/26, respectively, whereas women oppose confirming him 27/30 and 29/37, respectively. That may be merely an artifact of partisanship, as men trend Republican while women trend Democrat, but maybe not. Maybe abortion politics are influencing views here. (Traditionally men and women split roughly the same on abortion in polling but perhaps that’ll change if suddenly Roe is under real threat.)

Nate Silver has a theory worth thinking about too, though:

The only finalist alongside Gorsuch was Tom Hardiman, a dark horse. For all intents and purposes, Gorsuch was the choice all along. Not this time. While most righties are happy enough with Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett was the grassroots choice and Raymond Kethledge had some pockets of support. Could it be that a more competitive SCOTUS race tamped down Republican support for Kavanaugh? As it turns out, yes — at least in Fox’s data. Support among GOPers for Gorsuch was 82/7 versus just 70/6 for Kavanaugh, not a night-and-day difference but enough to hold down Kavanaugh’s overall public support somewhat. It may be that a few Barrett diehards haven’t gotten over Trump picking the safe, establishment, Bushian choice (yet). Silver’s theory doesn’t work with YouGov’s data, however. Last year support among Republicans for confirming Gorsuch was 69/9 (which seems suspiciously low, frankly) versus 85/2 support for Kavanaugh now.

Whatever the explanation, Kavanaugh’s support overall is clearly a bit lower than Gorsuch’s. And unlike Gorsuch, he’s destined to get scuffed up during the confirmation process. The politics of abortion are forever fraught; he’ll be dinged for his work in Ken Starr’s office; he’ll be grilled by Rand Paul and other on his rulings on civil liberties. It may be that as Barrett fans swing around and get in his corner that his numbers will rise, but there’ll be downward pressure too from shots the Dems land on him. If I were Schumer, my strategy for the hearings wouldn’t be to try to block Kavanaugh — that’s unlikely to happen unless something truly scandalous breaks — but to show Trump that Democrats have enough firepower to bloody even a “safe” pick. That might make him think twice about choosing a not-so-safe one like Barrett in case Ginsburg’s seat opens up.

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Obama’s Former Director of National Intelligence Says Obama Behind Entire Russia Witch Hunt!

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Guest post by Joe Hoft

President Obama’s former Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, came clean on CNN and stated that former President Obama was behind spying on President Trump!

James Clapper was on CNN yesterday and he stated that Obama was behind spying on President Trump and all the corrupt and criminal actions involving the government, including the Mueller investigation –

According to Obama’s former spy chief, James Clapper, who appeared on CNN to say it was Obama who set the entire Russia witch-hunt into motion by tasking the intelligence community assessment.

Clapper said –

If it weren’t for President Obama we might not have done the intelligence community assessment that we did that set up a whole sequence of events which are still unfolding today including Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation.  President Obama is responsible for that.  It was he who tasked us to do that intelligence community assessment in the first place.

The cat is out of the bag.

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Sunday morning talking heads

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It’s a special day on the Sunday shows when socialism’s new superstar drops by to show off her intellectual chops.

She’ll be on “Face the Nation” along with her idol, Bernie Sanders, as they campaign together in Kansas for a progressive Democrat running for Mike Pompeo’s old House seat. Why they’re wasting their time there, I have no idea: It’s a R+15 district. Presumably the idea is to draw big crowds so that other socialist candidates across the country can point to it and say, “See? Even in the heartland they want hard-leftism.”

Otherwise it’s likely to be wall-to-wall chatter about Trump and Putin today. Adam Schiff will be the lead guest on “This Week,” where he’ll say Adam-Schiff-type things about collusion and kompromat. The top-billed Republican, meanwhile, is Marco Rubio, who took some heat this week after claiming that he was satisfied with POTUS’s “I said ‘would’ when I meant to say ‘wouldn’t’” walkback of the Putin press conference. He’ll sit down with “Face the Nation” and “State of the Union” for some “Are you serious?” questions and will also likely be pressed on Trump’s commitment to NATO. Rubio’s a hawk of almost McCain-ian proportions, but unlike McCain he has a long career ahead of him potentially and therefore needs to stay on Trump’s good side. He’ll do his best this morning to be diplomatic with his criticism of the president’s NATO skepticism.

If you can stand it, John Kerry will also be on “Face the Nation” to condemn Trump for not showing as much strength towards an enemy as Kerry himself did with, er, Iran. The full line-up is at the AP.

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DEVELOPING: DOJ Releasing Docs Related to FISA Warrants on Carter Page

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On Friday, conservative watchdog group Judicial Watch announced documents related to the FISA warrants on Trump’s former campaign advisor, Carter Page were released by the FBI — and were on the way to JW headquarters.

Almost one year ago to the day, Judicial Watch filed a FOIA lawsuit against the DOJ for the following documents:

Copies of all proposed and all final signed FISA applications submitted to the FISC relating to Russian interference in the 2016 election, allegations of collusion between people associated with the Trump campaign and Russia, and any known Trump associates regardless of context;

Copies of all FISC responses to the above-mentioned applications in which the Court notified the FBI or Justice Department that it would not grant the proposed applications or recommended changes. If any such FISC responses were provided orally, rather than in writing, please provide copies of FBI or Justice Department records memorializing or otherwise referencing the relevant FISC responses;

Copies of all FISC orders relating to the above mentioned applications, whether denying the applications and certifications, denying the orders, modifying the orders, granting the orders, or other types of orders.

Obama’s Deep State FBI and DOJ obtained a FISA warrant on Carter Page in October of 2016 and three subsequent renewals in order to spy on Trump’s campaign and transition team.

Comey, Rosenstein, McCabe and Sally Yates all signed the FISA applications even though Hillary’s fraudulent Russia dossier was used as a pretext to obtain the warrants.

“Judicial Watch may finally get the infamous spy warrants the Obama administration and Deep State used while conspiring with the Clinton campaign to target then-candidate and now President Trump. It took a year, but the stonewall and cover-up, we hope, begins to end today,” Judicial Watch president Tom Fitton said.


Tom Fitton updated and said the docs were Fed Ex’ed.

Fitton appeared on Fox News early Saturday morning to discuss the new development.

Tom Fitton expects the documents to have redactions, however he said on Fox News, “I suspect we’ll get more answers. We won’t get all the answers we want, so the fight will continue.”

VIDEO:

The new FISA warrant documents have not been released at the time of this publication, however; The Gateway Pundit will update as soon as the documents are available.

Update: Tom Fitton says he expects to receive the corrupt FISA docs by Monday.

You can support Judicial Watch by clicking here.

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